Commercial Sector Booms with Service Sector Growth
Growing service sector of India drive the demand for commercial real estate. Real estate research firms reported that Service sector of India showed a greater pace of growth rate of 8.5%. This will result in the increased demand for more commercial real estate space. In 2011 service sector occupied 70 % of office space and this is likely to be increased this year. Continue reading
PwC real estate partner, John Forbes, told the 2012 Cambridge Real Estate Finance and Investment Conference that the global financial crisis means that the milestone could come sooner than expected. ‘Back in 2007, we predicted that the GDP of the leading emerging markets would surpass that of the leading advanced economies by 2050. The intervening global financial crisis has slowed growth overall, but the deceleration has been most marked in the advanced economies,’ he said.
Real estate investors need to adapt as emerging markets start to dominate and China, the United States, India and Brazil are set to become the four major economies, it is claimed.
‘The shift in the balance of economic power is therefore happening more rapidly. We expect there to be three dominant economies by 2050 China, the United States and India. Then there will be a significant gap to the country that we expect to be in fourth place, Brazil,’ he explained. ‘We are already standing at a milestone. According to the latest data published by the International Monetary Fund in April, the share of world GDP of emerging and developing economies is expected to overtake that of advanced economies for the first time this year,’ he added.
Her told delegates that it is not a question of ‘if’ real estate investors will adapt to this changed landscape but ‘when’ and ‘how’. ‘Emerging market economies will be a major source of investment opportunities but also of capital. Real estate businesses need to address both. In terms of investing in emerging markets, investor concerns need to be considered,’ he pointed out. ‘The providers of capital have become increasingly attentive about a range of governance and transparency issues. This will be a major factor in determining which emerging market real estate businesses will attract international capital,’ he said.
‘Meeting the changing expectations of investors is a challenge for many real estate businesses even in advanced economies. Those in emerging markets are generally starting from a less developed point and for them the journey will be longer,’ he added.
Healthy office space absorption in 2011-2012 inspite of slowdown in GDP, However 2012-13 seems bleak.
Currently, the top seven cities of India that is Mumbai, National Capital Region, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkata together occupy 389 mn sq.ft of Grade-A office space. During 2010-11, a total of 38 mn sq.ft of new space was constructed in the top seven cities and it was 37 mn sq. ft during 2011-12. Office space absorption in India during 2011-12 was merely 2% lower than 2010-11 despite GDP growth slowing down from 8.4% to 6.9% during the same period. This is in sharp contrast to the popular belief that 2011-12 was a dull year for office market in terms of absorption. Healthy absorption rate ensured a drop in vacancy level to 21% by the end of Q4 2011-12 from 27% in Q4 2009-10.
Share of Banking & IT sector falls in absorption while manufacturing sector has witnessed an increasing trend over the last two years and contributed 19% in total absorption during 2011-12, higher from 13% in 2010-11. GDP growth of service segment is estimated to grow at 8.8% during 2012-13, much higher than industry segment growth of 6%. Absorption of space during 2012-13 is expected to be considerably lower than the previous two years and this will make it all the more challenging for developers to maintain existing levels of rent.
However, the latest move by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) of reducing the repo and reverse repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) each could provide the much needed impetus to the economy and help in reviewing the demand scenario for office space in the coming quarters.
The latest Economic Survey reveals that the share of the housing sector to the overall GDP is likely to rise by one per cent to 6 per cent on increased investment. Currently, about 5 per cent of India’s GDP is contributed by the housing sector. With institutional credit for housing investment growing at a compounded annual growth rate of about 18-20 per cent per annum in the next three-five years, the housing sector’s contribution to GDP is likely to increase to 6 per cent.
As every rupee that is invested in housing and construction, Rs 0.78 gets added to the GDP. Investment in housing and real estate activities can be considered a barometer of growth of the entire economy. Unfortunately, the 2012-13 Budget does not recognise this. Although the finance minister’s speech concludes by reiterating the fact that there is a need to create an “enabling atmosphere” and that India is on the brink of “resurgence”, he has done precious little to make that happen.
India’s GDP has not been growing as it was sometime earlier was the topic of the finance minister before presenting the Budget. His five-point objective does not really lay any emphasis on the housing and real estate industry. While he has tried to restrict central subsidies to fewer than 2 per cent of GDP to improve the quality of public spending, he has failed to provide for measures which will give impetus to the industry at large, housing and real estate in particular.
The finance minister has permitted external commercial borrowings (ECBs) for low cost affordable housing projects. One wonders if this would do any good, since players in this industry are not used to taking the ECB route for affordable housing projects. This provision therefore does not make sense.
Extending the scheme of interest subvention of 1 per cent on housing loans up to Rs 15 lakh (on houses costing up to Rs 25 lakh) for another year also does not make sense, unless and until the limit of Rs 25 lakh is increased.
Foreign developers are trying to attract Indian HNI (High Net Worth Individual). HNIs are people with net financial assets (liquid assets) of at least $1 million, excluding primary residence and consumables. India is projected to be the world’s third largest economy by 2050. A subsequent increase in the number of wealthy individuals, real estate consultants from across the world are trying and also getting the HNI segment interested enough to buy.
Strong GDP growth, robust figures in industrial and service sectors, high market capitalization and steady FII inflows are some factors contributing to the rise in HNI wealth. In 2006, India’s HNI population crossed the one lakh figure, which made it the second-fastest growing HNI segment in the world.