A study predicts that residential real estate prices in India will increase by 4-6% this year

According to a report released on Tuesday, home prices in India are expected to rise by 4-6% this year, with rising per capita income driving demand. 

CRISIL Ratings believes that moderate inflation, stable commodity prices, lower fiscal deficit, and a drop in global policy rates will pave the way for interest rate cuts to boost housing demand. 

“Range-bound growth in capital values and a likely moderation in interest rates in the second half of this fiscal year will ensure affordability improves after a decline in the previous two fiscal years due to a sharp increase in interest rates and capital values,” it said. 

In terms of sales, the market share of India’s 11 listed real estate developers is expected to double to 30-32 percent this year, up from 15% in the pre-pandemic fiscal year 2018-19. 

DLF Limited, Brigade Enterprise, Godrej Properties, Kolte-Patil Developers, Microtech Developers, Mahindra Lifespace Developers, Prestige Estates Projects, Puravankara, Sobha, Shriram Properties, and Sunteck Realty have a track record of delivering on time and with quality. 

According to CRISIL Ratings, “continuing premiumization,” affordability, and rising per capita income should help large, listed residential developers achieve a 10-12 percent increase in sales volume this year, up from an estimated 14% growth last year. 

“Large developers have already strengthened their credit profiles by deleveraging balance sheets through strong sales and collections over the last two years and focusing more on asset-light models, such as joint ventures and joint development,” said Pallavi Singh, associate director at CRISIL Ratings. 

Real state supply has shifted towards mid-to-high-end and luxury homes, while launches in the affordable segment are expected to remain muted. According to the report, the share of launches in the mid-to-premium and luxury segments is expected to be 55-60% in 2023-24, up from 30-35% before the pandemic. 

Five trends are influencing the residential real estate market in India.

The rapid expansion of the middle class in India is mainly to blame for the significant changes occurring in the Indian real estate market. Development professionals, investors, and potential end users are all very interested in this revolutionary shift, characterized by a sharp increase in population and economic growth. Urbanization, rising incomes, and easier access to education all contribute to this phenomenal growth. 

The Indian residential market is a leading indicator of changing regulations, economic vitality, and societal aspirations due to its novel opportunities and trends. The value of India’s residential real estate market reached an all-time high of Rs.3.47 lakh crores in FY23, representing a strong 48% annual growth. The sales number also showed an upward growth trajectory, increasing by 36% to 379,095 units sold. 

The nation is changing swiftly, and every part of the industry beats in time. The following are the main developments influencing India’s residential real estate market:

  1. Rise of Low-Density Housing: Plotted developments, townhouses, and villas are among the low-density housing options currently in high demand. Low-density housing uses less energy, such as electricity, air, and water, and is similar to small neighborhoods or single-family homes. Long-term residents of this kind of housing are encouraged to lead sustainable lives. Reducing the need for additional infrastructure in neighborhoods by forming them with fewer houses and preserving the land largely intact can help save resources. Buyers are becoming more aware of the benefits of low-density housing. Low-density housing is becoming more popular for people to escape congested urban areas and prioritize privacy, space, and harmony with nature. Developers are introducing carefully planned, low-density projects in response to this trend, emphasizing the value of open spaces, lush greenery, and a feeling of exclusivity. This change reflects a rising desire for well-balanced homes that combine contemporary conveniences with the peace of suburban settings. According to India Sothby’s International Realty’s annual Luxury Outlook Survey 2023, roughly one-third of HNIs and UHNIs are willing to spend over Rs 10 crores on real estate. For instance, Landmark Group sold out of its plots in record time at Landmark Avana, a new low-density housing project in Gurugram, particularly to a younger demographic looking for more space and a better standard of living. 
  1. Technological Integration: By improving comfort, security, and convenience, technology integration is completely changing the residential landscape. Ad IoT devices, home automation systems, and AI-powered assistants biome standard features in smart homes set new standards for futuristic living while providing residents with a seamless living experience. India’s smart home market is expected to generate US$6.5 billion in revenue by 2024. Based on research and markets for smart homes, India ranked third globally in 2020. Furthermore, by 2025, there will be 442 million smart homes in India, an increase over the current number of homes, according to Statista’s Digital Market Outlook for 2021. 
  2. Growing Preference for Owning a Home: The start of the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a significant shift in the way that society views home ownership. Purchasing a home is becoming more and more important to people than renting one. People now recognize the benefits of living in their own space with areas set aside for work, study, and leisure. As a result, people are more conscious of the inherent worth of owning a home since it provides a greater sense of stability and security during uncertain times. Like the pre-COVID housing loan levels, Indian banks advanced housing loans totaling approximately 2 trillion Indian rupees in FY22. As more Indians were investing in residential real estate, this suggested that homebuyer confidence was returning. 
  1. Elegant living: The market focuses on pricey, showy real estate. These upscale residential developments draw discriminating buyers looking for an unmatched quality of life with their first-rate amenities. According to a recent India Sotheby’s International Realty study, the number of affluent people planning to buy luxury real estate in the upcoming years has considerably increased. The luxury real estate market has seen substantial disruption due to growing income levels, deeper technological integration, and evolving consumer preferences brought about by shifting demographics. Millennials are becoming interested in luxury real estate as their incomes rise and their urban lifestyles change. Luxurious properties are in high demand due to the possibility of substantial rental income and a high return on investment. The sales of luxury homes in India increased by 130% in the first half of 2023 compared to the last year. Set to open in Dwarka Expressway, Landmark Group’s new residential project promises to be the ideal residential complex with its endless luxury services and state-of-the-art amenities that are best suited for the changing way of life. 
  1. Tier 2 becomes a powerful force: After the pandemic, many people assessed their living situations and looked for sale houses in their hometowns to feel more stable. The consequence has been an increase in the visibility of Tier 2 cities, which are growing hubs for real estate. The discernible increase in investment activity is causing significant changes in these cities’ real estate markets. With a robust housing market supporting them, Tier 2 cities are rapidly expanding their infrastructure and offering various opportunities for residential and commercial use. Furthermore, the government’s support of cities helps the real estate industry expand. Projects to develop townships and settlements may receive up to 100% FDI approval from the government. Tier 2 cities real estate growth has surpassed Tier 1 cities. For example, at the end of the fiscal year 2021-22, Ahmedabad’s residential real estate market size of INR 83,390 crores exceeded the market sizes of some Tier 1 cities, like Chennai and Kolkata, with INR 52,554 crore and INR 38,440 crore, respectively. This expansion was also apparent in Tier 2 cities like Nashik, Jaipur, Vadodara,  and Gandhinagar. 

The government has increased its efforts to provide affordable housing in response to the recent spike in housing demand, and developers have modified their business plans. The term “affordable housing” describes real estate with prices within the reach of low- and middle-class families. The affordable housing project Landmark the Homes in Sector 81 is anticipated to be completed by December 2024, according to the Landmark Group. One can look into government-funded programs created especially for low-income groups or home loan options from private lenders/NBFCs to purchase affordable housing in India. A commitment of Rs 79,000 crore (US$9.64 billion) for the PM Awas Yojna has been announced in the Union Budget 2023-24, a 66% increase over the previous years.  

Government initiatives such as the Rajiv Awas Yojna and Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana have encouraged developers to take on projects to offer affordable housing, thereby promoting accessibility and inclusivity in the real estate market. Meeting the demand for 40 million urban housing units is necessary, given that the population is growing at an average annual rate of 2.1% and that a large portion of our population has low purchasing power.

 India’s growing urban population is driving up demand for homes, changing the country’s skylines and city spaces.