With the real estate index plunging 125% over the last year, the market has experienced a notable upswing. It is possible to attribute this surge to high pre-sales numbers. In this context, let us compare the stocks of Godrej Properties and DLF to see which offers better long-term investment prospects. 

The real estate market has experienced a notable upswing in the last year, as evidenced by the realty index’s explosion of over 125 percent. Excellent pre-sales numbers from real estate companies are responsible for this increase. Real estate companies’ stock prices have stayed high, partly because they announced upcoming projects, encouraging pre-sales numbers and market expansion. 

In this context, let us compare the real estate stocks of Godrej Properties (GPL) and DLF to see which offers better long-term investment prospects. 

Trend of Stock Prices

To date this year, DLF and Godrej Properties have outperformed the benchmark. GPL has increased by 24% in 2024 YTD, compared to DLF’s nearly 29% increase. In contrast, Nifty has grown by 3%, while the Nifty Realty index has increased by more than 18%. 

Thus far in 2024, both stocks have produced positive returns in both months. DLF increased by 13 percent in February, bringing its winning streak to six months. In January, it increased by 9.7%. GPL saw gains for the fifth month in a row, adding 1.2 percent in February. It increased by about 18% in January. 

Meanwhile, DLF and GPL have produced multi-bagger returns over the past year. While GPL has increased by 114 percent, DLF has grown by over 159 percent. Conversely, Nifty Realty has experienced a growth of more than 125%, whereas Nifty has grown by more than 27%. In intraday transactions today, March 4, DLF and Godrej Properties reached their 52-week highs. On March 14, 2023, DLF reached its one-year high of Rs 932, surging 177 percent from its 52-week low of Rs 336.50. GPL also reached its 52-week high of Rs 2,524, rising 151 percent from its March 29, 2023, 52-week low of Rs 1,005. 

Meanwhile, DLF has come out on top over the next three years. While GPL is up just  67 percent, the stock has returned 194%. 

Earnings 

Due to increased revenue and decreased expenses, DLF reported a 27% increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 655.71 crore for the December quarter. Its net profit for the previous year was Rs 517.94 crore. In the October – December quarter of the 2023-24 fiscal year, total consolidated income increased to Rs 1,643.51 core from Rs 1,59 crore during the same period the previous year. Thanks to several launches throughout the quarter, DLF, the big real estate player by market capitalization, recorded its highest quarterly sales booking of Rs 9,047 crore. In addition to generating Rs 1,108 crore in operating cash, the company reported strong liquidity. 

In contrast, Godrej Properties’ net profit in Q3FY24 increased 6% YoY to Rs 62.47 crore. Revenues for the company were Rs 330.44 crore, up 68.39 percent. In the December quarter of FY24, the company achieved its highest-ever pre-sales, totaling Rs 5,700 crore, a 76 percent increase over the prior year. Eight project launches between October and December helped the pre-sales and accounted for about 69% of the bookings. According to the company, bookings for the nine months that end on December 31, 2023, totaled Rs 13,000 crore, or 93% of the company’s goal for FY 24. 

Which real estate stock offers the best chances for long-term financial gains?

Director and senior technical analyst Shhersham Gupta of Rupeezy favors DLF over Godrej Properties. 

Godrej Properties and DLF have cooperated on several projects for the past year, resulting in excellent outcomes. But of the two, the DLF is the most promising due to its ambitious project launch pipeline. DLF plans to significantly increase its operating flows and profitability, with planned launches having a gross development value (GDV) of Rs 32,000 crore, representing considerably more than previous years’ figures. 

Conversely, SAMCO Securities research analyst Moorjani believes Godrej Properties is more suitable. 

Both DLF and Godrej Properties are currently selling at ridiculous prices. Therefore, even though current owners may decide to hang onto their shares, new investors should steer clear of these stocks. Godrej Properties recently reported its highest-ever quarterly sales bookings for the second consecutive quarter. When it acquired a 12.5-acre plot of land in Hyderabad with a massive 3,500 crore revenue potential, it also caused a stir. Furthermore, contrary to many others in the industry, Godrej Properties has reported growth in its profits and revenue. Godrej Properties is an excellent option for investors considering its financial performance and potential for growth.  

In the interim, international brokerage firm Jefferies has called for a “buy” position in both real estate stocks. Godrej Properties’ target price has increased to Rs 2,700 (from Rs 2,635), signifying a gain of more than 7%. Conversely, the brokerage has already surpassed its target of Rs 875 for DLF. With two consecutive record-breaking pre-sales quarters and a robust launch pipeline for the fourth quarter, Godrej Properties expects to see at least 50% more sales growth this year. Due to the lack of noteworthy project deliveries during the quarter, its revenue of Rs 330.44 crore was below expectations. Worli (MMR), Ashok Vihar (NCR), and Sarjapur (Bengaluru) are just a few of the projects that GPL has said are probably going to be delayed. According to Jefferies on GPL, the launch pipeline for 4QFY24 is still strong, excluding these projects. A 15-year high quarterly profit, an all-time high in pre-sales, and more than Rs 1000 crore in free cash flow generation were made public for DLF in Q3. Additionally, according to the brokerage, DLF’s updated project pipeline indicates that launches for FY24 have taken place, but the pipeline for FY25 and FY26 has been steadily growing. It also added that the lease performance remained stable, with an 8% YoY rental growth.   

Yet, CLSA has a “sell” call on both equities. 

Ultimately, buyers and sellers of real estate need to consider these divergent viewpoints and carry out their due diligence. 

Note: These are the opinions of individual analysts or brokerage firms; Propertywala does not endorse any of the ideas or opinions expressed above. Before making any investment decisions, we advise investors to consult with qualified specialists.