Tag Archives: economic survey

Housing and Real Estate: Telecom negatives present challenges

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While recognising the importance of the services sector (it accounts for 59 per cent of gross domestic product), the Economic Survey has raised concern over several components in it. Three months after the government rolled back its decision to allow 51 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail, the survey referred to it as a major challenge before the sector.

FDI in retail could begin in a phased manner in the metros, the survey suggested, a day ahead of the Budget. Though it did not specify the details, experts said the government document hinted at a low FDI cap, perhaps one of 26 per cent. It has also talked of “incentivising” mom-and-pop stores (kirana shops) “to modernise and compete effectively with retail shops, foreign or domestic”.

While agricultural marketing could improve immensely with the growth in modern retail trade, the revenue to the government could also increase. Currently, the retail sector is largely unorganised and has low tax compliance, it argued.

Reacting to the portion in the survey relating to FDI in retail, Purnendu Kumar, senior vice-president (retail), Technopak, said, “This is something similar to what was articulated earlier — issues like better integration with farmers leading to better pricing for them and quality storage leading to lower wastages. It needs to be seen how the government would be able to execute this, considering the Congress party does not account for the majority on its own.” Incentivising small traders was a welcome step, but the details were not available, Kumar said.

Karandeep Singh, chief financial officer, Flipkart, a leading online retail chain, said, “While the future is promising, it will be realised only if the government acts on some of the guidelines provided in the survey.” According to Singh, opening up FDI in retail and continuing to make the infrastructure sector attractive for investments were critical to creating more jobs and having a multiplier impact on the economy.

Realty Sector has no resurgence.

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The latest Economic Survey reveals that the share of the housing sector to the overall GDP is likely to rise by one per cent to 6 per cent on increased investment. Currently, about 5 per cent of India’s GDP is contributed by the housing sector. With institutional credit for housing investment growing at a compounded annual growth rate of about 18-20 per cent per annum in the next three-five years, the housing sector’s contribution to GDP is likely to increase to 6 per cent.

As every rupee that is invested in housing and construction, Rs 0.78 gets added to the GDP. Investment in housing and real estate activities can be considered a barometer of growth of the entire economy. Unfortunately, the 2012-13 Budget does not recognise this. Although the finance minister’s speech concludes by reiterating the fact that there is a need to create an “enabling atmosphere” and that India is on the brink of “resurgence”, he has done precious little to make that happen.

India’s GDP has not been growing as it was sometime earlier was the topic of the finance minister before presenting the Budget. His five-point objective does not really lay any emphasis on the housing and real estate industry. While he has tried to restrict central subsidies to fewer than 2 per cent of GDP to improve the quality of public spending, he has failed to provide for measures which will give impetus to the industry at large, housing and real estate in particular.

The finance minister has permitted external commercial borrowings (ECBs) for low cost affordable housing projects. One wonders if this would do any good, since players in this industry are not used to taking the ECB route for affordable housing projects. This provision therefore does not make sense.

Extending the scheme of interest subvention of 1 per cent on housing loans up to Rs 15 lakh (on houses costing up to Rs 25 lakh) for another year also does not make sense, unless and until the limit of Rs 25 lakh is increased.

Renaissance of Realty Sector

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Delhi Properties - Real Estate India - Unitech Verve 1

In last few months Indian real estate has undergone a reawakening enforced by a noticeable increase in the level of construction activity of low-budget housing coupled with low home loan rates reached an all time low in the last few years.

As researched by Boston Analytics, the Indian realty sector has undergone an increased supply and pace of development activity which brought an improvement in pessimism associated with the realty prices. A low interest rate on home loans driven by Government’s impetus packages have also catalysed the Indian consumers to buy homes.

“Increased supply, improvement in pessimism related to realty sector rates, and low rates of interest on home loans seems to be encouraging Indian consumers to firm up their home purchase decisions” as said by Shirin Bagga, Economist, Boston Analytics.

The data was collected by conducting a monthly survey that targets 10,000 respondents cross 15 Indian cities—Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Chandigarh, Nagpur , Ahmedabad , Kochi, Jaipur, Lucknow, Bhubaneswar, Patna, and Vishakhapatnam.

According to the recent reports the conviction concerned to speed of construction activity conveys more anticipation with regards to observed change in construction activity in Tier II and Tier III cities relative to Tier I cities. The real estate projects which are in different phases of completion in all levels of towns and cities appear to be introducing optimism about the expected change in construction activity among respondents across Tiers,” the report said.

As brought into light by Economic Survey of  FY 2009-10, the need of the construction and real estate sector in creation of both financial and physical assets has been amplifying over the years. The construction sector now accounts for 8 percent of GDP at constant prices, hiked from 7.7% in 2004-05.Equivalently, the share of real estate ownership of dwelling and business services in overall GDP as hiked to 9.2 percent in FY 2008-09 from 8.9 percent in 2004-05.