The unending euphoria over real estate , which India has been witnessing over the past few years, is finally starting to show signs of ebbing, and that is probably healthy news for the long-term growth of this sector. Collapse of a few recent PE deals, postponement of capital-raising plans by developers and poor response to government land auctions are indicators of the “expected slowdown” in Indian real estate chapter.
Recalling the success story of a few years ago when home loan rates sank to 7.5%, it resulted in huge demand for quality real estate and paved the way for the spiking in property rates in many cities. Since then this industry displayed an unstoppable upward curve. However, today, with interest rates already very high with negligible scope of reduction due to inflationary pressures, the real estate momentum would not be the same.
Signs of a slowdown have started becoming visible in the residential sector. There has already been a marginal decline in rental and capital values of apartments across a few micro markets and the trend will only gain momentum as we move ahead, especially in peripheral and suburban locations where significant supply is in the pipeline. Even the office market has not escaped. It has witnessed stagnancy in rentals in majority of locations in Q1 2008.
This trend, given the sharp rise in rental values over the past few years, is important. IT/ITES, a major demand driver for office and residential property, is not expected to digest the future supply in the medium term. Given the supply ramp-up of 82 million sq ft of office space across seven major cities in 2008, it is expected to put pressures on rental values leading to deceleration in medium term.